graph ################################################################ ## Parameter Values # ################################################################ $INTERVAL = 1 [days] $AVE_SPAN = 2 [days] $SIGMA_COEFF = 0.5 $BAYES_INIT = 0.3 Start Date = 2012/4/20 Final Date = 2012/5/20 $BAYES_TERM = 6 $TREND_SPAN = 27 [days] $OUTPUT_THRESH = 270 # Num. of Terms: 32 # Max Port Number: 65527 # Time, Total, MA, SD, port: 1433 (2576), MA, SD, port: 445 (2074), MA, SD, port: 3389 (1445), MA, SD, port: 22 (1150), MA, SD, port: 80 (1015), MA, SD, port: 23 (888), MA, SD, port: 8080 (772), MA, SD, port: 3306 (533), MA, SD, port: 5060 (490), MA, SD, port: 6666 (472), MA, SD, port: 8909 (452), MA, SD, port: 9415 (448), MA, SD, port: 1080 (326), MA, SD, Sat Apr 21 00:00:00 2012, 483, 335.0, 95.8, 94, 97.9, 18.6, 32, 53.0, 13.2, 31, 43.3, 7.9, 29, 39.9, 7.0, 19, 30.1, 7.3, 15, 37.1, 17.6, 30, 23.4, 7.4, 9, 20.1, 12.0, 14, 15.7, 3.5, 0, 18.7, 19.3, 0, 18.3, 20.0, 0, 18.2, 20.1, 9, 10.7, 1.5, Sun Apr 22 00:00:00 2012, 624, 356.0, 104.2, 108, 96.6, 18.2, 49, 56.1, 13.6, 39, 43.8, 7.7, 47, 40.9, 7.1, 27, 29.5, 7.7, 15, 38.1, 18.5, 31, 23.1, 7.4, 15, 20.2, 11.6, 17, 15.0, 4.0, 0, 18.4, 19.0, 0, 17.9, 19.6, 0, 17.9, 19.6, 10, 10.7, 1.5, Mon Apr 23 00:00:00 2012, 623, 382.0, 109.1, 103, 94.5, 18.4, 46, 57.2, 14.2, 49, 44.7, 7.6, 47, 40.1, 6.9, 31, 30.1, 7.5, 23, 38.5, 18.3, 19, 22.8, 7.3, 17, 19.5, 11.3, 18, 15.2, 3.9, 0, 17.6, 19.1, 0, 17.1, 19.4, 0, 17.1, 19.3, 11, 10.7, 1.4, Tue Apr 24 00:00:00 2012, 707, 405.0, 114.2, 96, 93.8, 18.4, 48, 58.5, 14.2, 45, 45.2, 7.6, 53, 40.0, 6.8, 31, 29.7, 7.3, 23, 38.0, 17.8, 28, 23.2, 7.1, 18, 18.8, 11.4, 14, 14.9, 3.8, 0, 16.7, 19.5, 2, 16.3, 19.5, 1, 16.3, 19.5, 13, 10.6, 1.5, Wed Apr 25 00:00:00 2012, 709, 431.0, 115.8, 110, 91.1, 18.9, 45, 59.3, 13.9, 48, 45.2, 7.5, 41, 39.8, 6.7, 28, 29.9, 7.1, 16, 37.5, 17.4, 32, 23.6, 7.2, 27, 18.3, 11.4, 15, 15.1, 3.7, 0, 16.3, 19.6, 2, 15.7, 19.4, 1, 15.7, 19.4, 13, 10.6, 1.5, Thu Apr 26 00:00:00 2012, 623, 461.0, 113.5, 99, 90.7, 19.0, 52, 60.5, 13.7, 51, 46.3, 7.6, 40, 40.3, 6.6, 31, 30.0, 6.9, 29, 36.4, 17.2, 28, 24.2, 7.2, 31, 17.7, 11.4, 19, 15.1, 3.7, 1, 15.9, 19.3, 0, 15.4, 19.1, 0, 15.3, 19.1, 12, 10.5, 1.4, Fri Apr 27 00:00:00 2012, 713, 490.0, 110.7, 80, 90.4, 18.5, 60, 63.5, 15.3, 55, 46.0, 7.5, 51, 39.8, 6.4, 33, 30.4, 6.8, 49, 35.6, 17.1, 32, 24.2, 7.1, 31, 17.2, 11.3, 20, 15.7, 3.8, 14, 15.6, 19.1, 13, 15.1, 18.8, 13, 15.0, 18.9, 10, 10.6, 1.4, Sat Apr 28 00:00:00 2012, 778, 519.0, 108.7, 71, 89.5, 18.1, 48, 64.4, 16.2, 59, 45.8, 7.5, 44, 39.7, 6.3, 43, 32.2, 8.4, 56, 34.6, 17.1, 30, 25.3, 7.6, 47, 17.2, 11.1, 19, 15.9, 4.0, 27, 15.2, 18.9, 26, 14.8, 18.5, 25, 14.5, 18.7, 9, 11.0, 1.8, Sun Apr 29 00:00:00 2012, 769, 546.0, 109.4, 74, 88.4, 18.1, 31, 66.4, 16.5, 39, 46.7, 7.5, 40, 39.4, 6.3, 49, 32.7, 9.2, 39, 33.6, 17.3, 20, 25.5, 8.2, 37, 17.1, 10.9, 19, 16.0, 3.9, 32, 15.9, 18.4, 30, 15.3, 18.0, 30, 15.0, 18.2, 9, 10.8, 1.8, Mon Apr 30 00:00:00 2012, 877, 565.0, 109.2, 102, 88.3, 17.7, 48, 66.6, 16.3, 39, 47.3, 8.1, 39, 39.6, 6.1, 33, 32.8, 9.0, 47, 33.2, 17.1, 19, 26.1, 8.2, 17, 17.1, 10.6, 16, 16.3, 3.9, 46, 16.5, 17.9, 44, 16.0, 17.6, 44, 15.7, 17.8, 11, 10.7, 2.0, Tue May 1 00:00:00 2012, 940, 581.0, 107.0, 137, 87.8, 17.3, 71, 66.5, 16.3, 43, 47.6, 8.0, 31, 39.0, 6.0, 29, 33.5, 9.1, 55, 32.4, 16.9, 20, 26.4, 8.2, 17, 17.2, 10.4, 17, 16.2, 3.9, 65, 16.4, 17.4, 64, 15.9, 17.2, 63, 15.6, 17.3, 13, 10.7, 1.9, Wed May 2 00:00:00 2012, 845, 608.0, 105.2, 129, 87.6, 17.0, 72, 66.7, 16.1, 38, 46.9, 8.1, 29, 38.5, 6.2, 30, 33.7, 9.1, 46, 31.8, 16.7, 17, 26.4, 8.1, 11, 17.0, 10.3, 15, 16.3, 3.8, 53, 16.0, 17.2, 53, 15.5, 16.9, 53, 15.3, 17.0, 12, 10.9, 1.9, Thu May 3 00:00:00 2012, 713, 629.0, 103.2, 92, 87.0, 16.7, 85, 67.1, 15.8, 34, 47.6, 7.9, 39, 37.8, 6.7, 25, 33.6, 8.9, 47, 31.4, 16.4, 15, 26.4, 7.9, 6, 16.8, 10.1, 9, 16.2, 3.7, 23, 15.7, 16.9, 23, 15.1, 16.6, 24, 14.9, 16.7, 10, 10.8, 1.9, Fri May 4 00:00:00 2012, 624, 647.0, 102.1, 83, 86.7, 16.4, 75, 67.0, 15.7, 40, 47.7, 7.9, 44, 37.6, 7.0, 23, 33.6, 8.7, 55, 30.6, 16.3, 15, 26.2, 7.8, 8, 17.2, 9.9, 9, 16.3, 3.6, 13, 15.4, 16.6, 12, 14.8, 16.3, 13, 14.8, 16.4, 10, 10.8, 1.9, Sat May 5 00:00:00 2012, 684, 656.0, 104.1, 83, 86.0, 16.3, 80, 69.0, 15.4, 52, 48.8, 7.5, 49, 38.6, 6.7, 21, 34.5, 8.4, 61, 30.8, 15.9, 18, 26.2, 8.0, 18, 17.9, 10.0, 8, 16.3, 3.6, 13, 15.6, 16.3, 11, 15.0, 16.1, 12, 14.9, 16.1, 11, 11.0, 1.9, Sun May 6 00:00:00 2012, 686, 651.0, 116.8, 71, 86.2, 16.5, 87, 71.1, 15.4, 53, 49.7, 7.5, 42, 38.6, 6.8, 30, 34.8, 8.4, 51, 30.7, 15.3, 18, 25.4, 8.0, 15, 18.4, 10.1, 13, 16.7, 3.7, 9, 16.8, 16.0, 8, 16.1, 15.8, 9, 15.9, 15.8, 11, 11.0, 1.9, Mon May 7 00:00:00 2012, 655, 641.0, 118.5, 69, 83.3, 16.5, 80, 71.4, 15.3, 55, 48.7, 8.0, 34, 38.3, 6.8, 33, 34.4, 8.8, 36, 30.8, 15.1, 23, 25.4, 8.2, 7, 18.1, 10.0, 14, 16.2, 3.6, 3, 16.9, 15.7, 3, 16.2, 15.5, 3, 16.1, 15.5, 9, 10.9, 2.0, Tue May 8 00:00:00 2012, 654, 613.0, 119.2, 61, 83.0, 16.8, 76, 72.4, 15.4, 52, 48.4, 8.1, 35, 37.6, 6.4, 29, 34.4, 8.9, 27, 30.6, 15.0, 32, 25.5, 8.3, 8, 18.2, 10.2, 14, 16.3, 3.7, 6, 17.5, 15.7, 5, 16.8, 15.4, 5, 16.6, 15.4, 9, 10.8, 2.0, Wed May 9 00:00:00 2012, 705, 589.0, 120.6, 65, 82.2, 16.7, 78, 73.1, 15.4, 58, 48.9, 8.3, 41, 36.9, 6.5, 32, 34.5, 9.1, 22, 31.4, 14.6, 32, 25.2, 8.3, 8, 18.0, 10.3, 19, 16.3, 3.8, 9, 18.2, 15.7, 8, 17.3, 15.4, 7, 17.2, 15.3, 10, 10.7, 2.0, Thu May 10 00:00:00 2012, 756, 564.0, 122.8, 85, 80.9, 17.0, 105, 74.2, 15.6, 53, 48.4, 8.4, 42, 37.3, 6.7, 36, 34.6, 9.3, 19, 31.8, 14.8, 29, 24.8, 8.4, 7, 17.5, 10.3, 21, 16.4, 3.8, 8, 18.8, 15.6, 8, 18.0, 15.4, 7, 17.9, 15.3, 11, 10.7, 2.0, Fri May 11 00:00:00 2012, 779, 546.0, 125.4, 76, 80.8, 17.2, 102, 74.8, 15.9, 40, 48.4, 8.4, 35, 36.8, 6.3, 57, 34.9, 9.5, 17, 31.6, 14.9, 39, 25.0, 8.4, 12, 17.0, 10.1, 22, 16.1, 3.8, 9, 19.6, 15.9, 9, 18.7, 15.7, 7, 18.6, 15.6, 16, 10.6, 2.1, Sat May 12 00:00:00 2012, 827, 525.0, 127.6, 65, 81.0, 17.1, 99, 75.7, 15.7, 54, 47.8, 8.2, 33, 36.4, 6.4, 55, 35.1, 9.5, 11, 30.2, 14.7, 41, 24.4, 8.5, 17, 16.1, 8.1, 19, 16.0, 3.8, 20, 19.3, 16.2, 19, 18.4, 15.9, 16, 18.3, 15.9, 13, 10.7, 2.1, Sun May 13 00:00:00 2012, 791, 500.0, 130.4, 76, 81.7, 17.2, 89, 77.4, 13.6, 64, 47.7, 8.2, 37, 36.3, 6.5, 36, 34.0, 9.0, 18, 29.3, 15.0, 34, 24.5, 8.7, 16, 14.3, 6.9, 20, 15.8, 3.8, 30, 19.0, 16.3, 29, 18.0, 16.1, 28, 18.0, 16.0, 7, 10.8, 2.1, Mon May 14 00:00:00 2012, 687, 473.0, 131.0, 82, 81.5, 17.4, 66, 79.9, 12.8, 56, 48.9, 8.2, 36, 36.1, 6.7, 44, 33.8, 9.3, 19, 29.5, 15.0, 36, 24.8, 8.8, 19, 14.3, 7.0, 18, 15.7, 3.9, 22, 18.1, 15.6, 21, 17.3, 15.5, 22, 17.2, 15.3, 11, 10.8, 2.1, Tue May 15 00:00:00 2012, 596, 452.0, 128.4, 79, 79.7, 13.7, 69, 80.1, 13.1, 40, 48.6, 8.3, 27, 36.0, 6.7, 44, 34.1, 9.4, 16, 27.5, 14.5, 29, 25.0, 8.9, 17, 13.9, 7.2, 16, 15.8, 4.0, 10, 16.2, 11.5, 9, 15.4, 11.4, 10, 15.4, 11.5, 13, 10.8, 2.1, Wed May 16 00:00:00 2012, 613, 429.0, 131.3, 76, 75.8, 9.4, 75, 80.7, 13.5, 50, 49.4, 8.2, 23, 36.6, 6.5, 35, 34.3, 9.7, 19, 26.8, 14.4, 26, 25.3, 8.9, 10, 13.9, 7.3, 16, 15.6, 4.1, 7, 13.2, 7.4, 6, 12.3, 7.2, 6, 12.3, 7.2, 10, 10.7, 2.2, Thu May 17 00:00:00 2012, 668, 411.0, 133.0, 75, 74.3, 9.4, 68, 81.2, 13.6, 58, 49.9, 7.5, 24, 36.7, 6.7, 32, 34.5, 9.7, 14, 25.4, 14.1, 23, 25.8, 8.7, 18, 14.4, 7.2, 16, 15.9, 3.9, 8, 12.1, 7.2, 7, 11.3, 6.8, 9, 11.3, 6.7, 9, 10.7, 2.2, Fri May 18 00:00:00 2012, 697, 389.0, 126.3, 75, 73.7, 9.7, 69, 80.5, 14.0, 52, 51.2, 7.3, 34, 36.3, 6.7, 35, 35.4, 9.5, 12, 24.3, 12.7, 18, 26.5, 8.3, 29, 15.0, 7.2, 17, 16.4, 3.5, 5, 12.0, 7.4, 5, 11.1, 7.0, 7, 11.0, 6.9, 13, 10.7, 2.3, Sat May 19 00:00:00 2012, 850, 367.0, 122.3, 91, 73.1, 10.0, 92, 81.8, 14.4, 60, 51.0, 7.5, 43, 35.7, 6.2, 39, 36.1, 9.0, 15, 21.7, 9.2, 20, 27.2, 8.2, 25, 15.2, 7.4, 20, 16.7, 2.7, 20, 12.0, 7.7, 18, 11.2, 7.3, 17, 11.0, 7.1, 13, 10.8, 2.3, Sun May 20 00:00:00 2012, 658, 344.0, 117.2, 69, 72.4, 10.0, 77, 80.5, 14.6, 38, 51.1, 7.8, 41, 34.6, 6.3, 25, 37.1, 9.0, 16, 19.5, 5.6, 18, 27.4, 8.0, 16, 14.6, 7.6, 16, 17.4, 2.5, 19, 11.9, 7.9, 17, 11.1, 7.4, 16, 10.8, 7.3, 8, 10.7, 2.4, # ***** Time-Series Bayes Estimation ***** Term, Port 1433, Port 445, Port 3389, Port 22, Port 80, Port 23, Port 8080, Port 3306, Port 5060, Port 6666, Port 8909, Port 9415, Port 1080, Sat Apr 28 00:00:00 2012, 0.3453, 0.0632, 0.7157, 0.7697, 0.4796, 0.1958, 0.6496, 0.7546, 0.6276, 0.1166, 0.1240, 0.1185, 0.5550, Sun Apr 29 00:00:00 2012, 0.2346, 0.0434, 0.5647, 0.7002, 0.6208, 0.2862, 0.6353, 0.8674, 0.6320, 0.2171, 0.2230, 0.2149, 0.4331, Mon Apr 30 00:00:00 2012, 0.2865, 0.0381, 0.4647, 0.5335, 0.6037, 0.4443, 0.4760, 0.8708, 0.6502, 0.4191, 0.4125, 0.4063, 0.3110, Tue May 1 00:00:00 2012, 0.3931, 0.0639, 0.3618, 0.3861, 0.5797, 0.6834, 0.2925, 0.8282, 0.6751, 0.7096, 0.6951, 0.6908, 0.2816, Wed May 2 00:00:00 2012, 0.5413, 0.0942, 0.2187, 0.2678, 0.5164, 0.7889, 0.1709, 0.7018, 0.5400, 0.8756, 0.8710, 0.8685, 0.2515, Thu May 3 00:00:00 2012, 0.6351, 0.1535, 0.0861, 0.1759, 0.3758, 0.7984, 0.0720, 0.4880, 0.2756, 0.8990, 0.8980, 0.8983, 0.2532, Fri May 4 00:00:00 2012, 0.7023, 0.2556, 0.0327, 0.1881, 0.1853, 0.8102, 0.0334, 0.2176, 0.1209, 0.8635, 0.8615, 0.8674, 0.3061, Sat May 5 00:00:00 2012, 0.7511, 0.4911, 0.0584, 0.2816, 0.0628, 0.8780, 0.0296, 0.1271, 0.0445, 0.8030, 0.7973, 0.8094, 0.3949, Sun May 6 00:00:00 2012, 0.5982, 0.6963, 0.1030, 0.3398, 0.0490, 0.8951, 0.0291, 0.1115, 0.0311, 0.6429, 0.6361, 0.6599, 0.3745, Mon May 7 00:00:00 2012, 0.3004, 0.7209, 0.1711, 0.3947, 0.0562, 0.8570, 0.0349, 0.0755, 0.0218, 0.3428, 0.3381, 0.3659, 0.2045, Tue May 8 00:00:00 2012, 0.1047, 0.7128, 0.2810, 0.4888, 0.0523, 0.7895, 0.0738, 0.0659, 0.0196, 0.1552, 0.1491, 0.1657, 0.1201, Wed May 9 00:00:00 2012, 0.0629, 0.6473, 0.5296, 0.5350, 0.0671, 0.6583, 0.1618, 0.0679, 0.0504, 0.1048, 0.0982, 0.1049, 0.1220, Thu May 10 00:00:00 2012, 0.0774, 0.7438, 0.6809, 0.5178, 0.1104, 0.4345, 0.2930, 0.0660, 0.1460, 0.0852, 0.0821, 0.0835, 0.1529, Fri May 11 00:00:00 2012, 0.0744, 0.7989, 0.5398, 0.3460, 0.3260, 0.2093, 0.5350, 0.0535, 0.3945, 0.0700, 0.0713, 0.0675, 0.2967, Sat May 12 00:00:00 2012, 0.0740, 0.8203, 0.5695, 0.2498, 0.5609, 0.0877, 0.7681, 0.0650, 0.5772, 0.0872, 0.0894, 0.0760, 0.3986, Sun May 13 00:00:00 2012, 0.0895, 0.8358, 0.6538, 0.3165, 0.6053, 0.0562, 0.8548, 0.1082, 0.7343, 0.1557, 0.1581, 0.1329, 0.3350, Mon May 14 00:00:00 2012, 0.1414, 0.7469, 0.6895, 0.3555, 0.7556, 0.0471, 0.8736, 0.1950, 0.8240, 0.2208, 0.2252, 0.1963, 0.4352, Tue May 15 00:00:00 2012, 0.1956, 0.6419, 0.4850, 0.2006, 0.8430, 0.0447, 0.8575, 0.3039, 0.7793, 0.2236, 0.2279, 0.2083, 0.5792, Wed May 16 00:00:00 2012, 0.1799, 0.4266, 0.4344, 0.0831, 0.8382, 0.0501, 0.8331, 0.3421, 0.6960, 0.2150, 0.2130, 0.1981, 0.5240, Thu May 17 00:00:00 2012, 0.2059, 0.2124, 0.6392, 0.0506, 0.6790, 0.0529, 0.7005, 0.4476, 0.5645, 0.2211, 0.2128, 0.2251, 0.2558, Fri May 18 00:00:00 2012, 0.2884, 0.0990, 0.5756, 0.0544, 0.5027, 0.0587, 0.4395, 0.6034, 0.5029, 0.1588, 0.1562, 0.1948, 0.2489, Sat May 19 00:00:00 2012, 0.4722, 0.0944, 0.5205, 0.0794, 0.5136, 0.0592, 0.2604, 0.6928, 0.5115, 0.1765, 0.1688, 0.2075, 0.4857, Sun May 20 00:00:00 2012, 0.4302, 0.1255, 0.2911, 0.1155, 0.2901, 0.0608, 0.1195, 0.6490, 0.3862, 0.2167, 0.2021, 0.2343, 0.3658, # ***** Internet Weather Report ***** Port No.: 1433 Warning Level: Moderate (Level 3) Bayes Confidence: 0.4302 Latest Access Amount: 69 Latest Moving Average: 72.4 Latest Standard Deviation: 10.0 (Latest Term: [Sat May 19 00:00:00 2012 -- Mon May 21 00:00:00 2012]) Port No.: 445 Warning Level: Moderate (Level 3) Bayes Confidence: 0.1255 Latest Access Amount: 77 Latest Moving Average: 80.5 Latest Standard Deviation: 14.6 (Latest Term: [Sat May 19 00:00:00 2012 -- Mon May 21 00:00:00 2012]) Port No.: 3389 Warning Level: Moderate (Level 3) Bayes Confidence: 0.2911 Latest Access Amount: 38 Latest Moving Average: 51.1 Latest Standard Deviation: 7.8 (Latest Term: [Sat May 19 00:00:00 2012 -- Mon May 21 00:00:00 2012]) Port No.: 22 Warning Level: Moderate (Level 3) Bayes Confidence: 0.1155 Latest Access Amount: 41 Latest Moving Average: 34.6 Latest Standard Deviation: 6.3 (Latest Term: [Sat May 19 00:00:00 2012 -- Mon May 21 00:00:00 2012]) Port No.: 80 Warning Level: Moderate (Level 3) Bayes Confidence: 0.2901 Latest Access Amount: 25 Latest Moving Average: 37.1 Latest Standard Deviation: 9.0 (Latest Term: [Sat May 19 00:00:00 2012 -- Mon May 21 00:00:00 2012]) Port No.: 8080 Warning Level: Moderate (Level 3) Bayes Confidence: 0.1195 Latest Access Amount: 18 Latest Moving Average: 27.4 Latest Standard Deviation: 8.0 (Latest Term: [Sat May 19 00:00:00 2012 -- Mon May 21 00:00:00 2012]) Port No.: 3306 Warning Level: Severe (Level 2) Bayes Confidence: 0.6490 Latest Access Amount: 16 Latest Moving Average: 14.6 Latest Standard Deviation: 7.6 (Latest Term: [Sat May 19 00:00:00 2012 -- Mon May 21 00:00:00 2012]) Port No.: 5060 Warning Level: Moderate (Level 3) Bayes Confidence: 0.3862 Latest Access Amount: 16 Latest Moving Average: 17.4 Latest Standard Deviation: 2.5 (Latest Term: [Sat May 19 00:00:00 2012 -- Mon May 21 00:00:00 2012]) Port No.: 6666 Warning Level: Moderate (Level 3) Bayes Confidence: 0.2167 Latest Access Amount: 19 Latest Moving Average: 11.9 Latest Standard Deviation: 7.9 (Latest Term: [Sat May 19 00:00:00 2012 -- Mon May 21 00:00:00 2012]) Port No.: 8909 Warning Level: Moderate (Level 3) Bayes Confidence: 0.2021 Latest Access Amount: 17 Latest Moving Average: 11.1 Latest Standard Deviation: 7.4 (Latest Term: [Sat May 19 00:00:00 2012 -- Mon May 21 00:00:00 2012]) Port No.: 9415 Warning Level: Moderate (Level 3) Bayes Confidence: 0.2343 Latest Access Amount: 16 Latest Moving Average: 10.8 Latest Standard Deviation: 7.3 (Latest Term: [Sat May 19 00:00:00 2012 -- Mon May 21 00:00:00 2012]) Port No.: 1080 Warning Level: Moderate (Level 3) Bayes Confidence: 0.3658 Latest Access Amount: 8 Latest Moving Average: 10.7 Latest Standard Deviation: 2.4 (Latest Term: [Sat May 19 00:00:00 2012 -- Mon May 21 00:00:00 2012]) # ***** Created Time ***** Sun May 20 10:31:28 JST 2012
